XL Super Bowl for an XL man

Alright, I'm sick of the overuse of XL the past two weeks, but I'm a big guy and it's my blog. Anyways, I did promise a pick of the upcoming game. This has definitely been one of the most difficult championship game/series for me to pick. Usually, by the end of the season and playoffs I have a pretty good feel to make a confident pick. Much like the Rose Bowl a month ago, I find myself having a hard time choosing between two teams. Also like the Rose Bowl, I have a team I want to root for, but a nagging suspicion that this is not their year.

I have been a Steelers fan since Bill Cowher upset his mentor Marty Schottenheimer in the 1991 playoffs. I hated the Chiefs then and have a hard time rooting for them now. Oh, for the good old days when I only needed the color of the team's uniform to give me a reason to root for or against them. Any team wearing primarily red, other than the Bulls and Blackhawks, was an automatic target for my disdain. Any team that wore green or black, except the Celtics or those pussies from Green Bay, won my heart. And, of course, any team stupid enough to represent the shitholes of New York City or Boston may as well have burned in hell for all I cared.

I used to have much more animosity for Boston for some reason. The Red Sox had the word "red" in their nickname, enough said. I guess I hated the Celtics because they were my dad's team. This is not some deep seeded psychological issue. It all started when I realized what it meant that my Dad rooted for the Packers and I rooted for the Bears. I decided that I must root against any other team he roots for. It worked out well, leaving me to root against the conceited Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The only exceptions to this rule were: for the Iowa Hawkeyes and the rest of the Big Ten; against the Nebraska Cornhuskers (albeit with much less passion than he) and the rest of the Big 8/12 except Iowa State; and for Creighton University and all Jesuit schools. I'm sure I'll go into great detail about the Jesuits and their wonderful basketball teams when March Madness finally hits me.

Back, now, to the Steelers as a sentimental favorite. For tormenting the Chiefs in the playoffs, Cowher earned my undying gratitude. I really love the man's style of coaching. How could I not growing up in Big 10 country and a Bears fan. Physical ground game plus great defense equals a lot of wins. With a relatively low payroll and lack of quality quarterbacks, it has served the man very well.

Admittedly, I had grown leary of him. I began to think that maybe he was too much like Schottenheimer. The gameplan was too conservative to ever win it all. Recently, my mind began to change back after watching highlights of Super Bowl XXX. The man kicked an onside kick in the 3rd quarter. The gameplan wasn't the problem. Neil O'Donnell was the problem. Twice in that game he threw the ball to Cowboy defensive back Larry Brown without a single Steeler in view on the TV screen. Both interceptions were taken deep into Steeler territory and converted into touchdowns. That's huge when you lose by 10 pts.

Given the lack of quality at the quarterback position over the years, it makes Cowher's accomplishments all the more stunning. Sure, his teams have lost 4 AFC Championship Games at home. The last two times (Denver, 1997; New England 2004) they lost to clearly better teams. The first two times (San Diego, 1994; New England, 1996) they were upset by teams that took advantage of mistakes by the quarterbacks. Even when they won in 1995 (over Indianapolis) they had to survive a nearly completed Hail Mary pass as time expired. When you get to the final rounds of the playoffs, it is very difficult to win without quality quarterback play. Just ask the Chicago Bears of the 80's. Until Rothliesberger, Cowher did not have a guy who could make plays and keep the ball out of the other teams' hands.

Now that he has that component, I am worried about his most important offensive weapon. The running game has not fared well in the playoffs. Lost amid all the hoopla surrounding Jerome Bettis is that the Steelers have barely averaged 3 yards a carry. Now, considering that in all 3 wins, the Steelers had a big lead in the second half and everyone knew they were going to run, this may not cause too much concern. However, the only game in which they faced an elite quarterback, Peyton Manning was a botched field goal away from ruining the Magical Bus Ride. If the Steelers can't run the ball effectively with the lead, they will only allow the Seahawks back into the game.

After watching the Seahawks dismantle the Panthers, it's very hard to believe the Steelers could get away with milking the clock. The speed of the Hawks D should nullify Willie Parker. The game could easily come down to Jerome Bettis rolling over Seattle in the second half. If they can't do that, as good as their D is, Holmgren will find a way for Hasselbeck to get his team back into the game. After all, a bunch of 3 and outs will only create more possessions for Seattle.

Maybe that's the answer to my dilemma. I just don't trust Cowher with a small halftime lead. So, maybe it's a chickenshit move, but I am going to make a conditional pick for the Super Bowl. If the Steelers are trailing or the game is tied, I pick Rothliesberger to win the game for them. If they have a lead of 17 or less, I have to go with Seattle. I would love to see Cowher finally get his hands on the Lombardi Trophy and the Bus go out in style, but I just don't feel it. Oh what, the hell, I'll grow a pair and make a pick: Seattle 35 Pittsburgh 13. Seattle's speed will be too much for the Pittsburgh line, Rothliesberger will force some bad passes and turnovers will help the Seahawks march to a commanding halftime lead that Rothliesberger will prove unable to overcome.